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As the first weekend of May unfolds, the spotlight shines on the thrilling spectacle known as the “most exciting two minutes in sports.” Churchill Downs becomes the epicenter of horse racing this Saturday, hosting the first leg of the thoroughbred Grand Slam. The 2026 event promises plenty of intrigue as speculations swirl over which horse will claim victory beneath the iconic Twin Spires in Louisville, Kentucky.
Two main factors have shaped the lead-up to tonight’s race. The field is filled with several strong contenders, each capable of clinching the win. This uncertainty has been amplified by a series of last-minute scratches, including a major contender who withdrew on Saturday morning, leaving 19 horses in the race. As a result, picking a winner today will require a blend of intuition and analysis.
The unpredictable nature of this year’s race became apparent early on. Ted Noffey, the reigning 2-year-old champion with an unbeaten record in four races, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in October 2025, was sidelined due to an injury that kept him out of the qualifying season.
Earlier this week, a minor controversy erupted when Right To Party was removed from the race following a veterinarian’s assessment during warmups. The trainer argued it was merely the horse’s natural gait, but the decision to scratch him was upheld on Friday. Adding to the drama, favorite contender The Puma was withdrawn this morning due to a minor leg injury, marking the fifth scratch this week. In a twist, replacement horse Corona de Oro was also scratched from the lineup.
So, what can we expect from the 152nd Run for the Roses? The betting scene is challenging, with morning line odds revealing about half a dozen horses at less than 10-1 odds. This ensures an exciting and unpredictable race ahead.
That said, what are we looking at on the card for this 152nd Run for the Roses? It is tough betting, as the morning lines show half a dozen rides are sporting odds below 10-1.
Most are regarding Renegade as the one favorite, but he drew the number one post last Saturday, which mitigates so much hype. Unless he gets a sharp start, the field could collapse on him on the rail and bury him in the crowd. He comes in with wins at the Tampa and Arkansas Derbies, and if he gets clear, he is the threat.
Another hot name is Commandment, winner of the Florida Derby and the Fountain of Youth Stakes. These two horses share a championship pedigree, with A.P. Indy, Unbridled, and Storm Cat in their bloodlines. Renegade has Curlin as a grandfather, while Commandment is a second-generation descendant of 2013 Kentucky Derby champ Orb. Helping Commandment’s fortunes is, following the departure of Right To Party, he will sport the number six towel but slides into the fifth post position, which delivers the most Derby winners.
One of the better stories is behind So Happy, a growing betting favorite at 6-1. During a 30-year career, trainer Mark Glatt never placed a horse in the Derby. The horse was regarded as ironically named, as Glatt is well known as a more downcast grouch of sorts, and then his wife passed away this February, shortly after they acquired the horse. But just a couple of months later, he shockingly won the Santa Anita Derby and qualified for today’s field.
Chief Wallabee (8-1) has been in the money, but came in behind Commandment in the pair of Florida races. Further Ado is in the mix with just some questions about light competition, though it sports a win at the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. One of the intriguing looks is another with dropping odds, Emerging Market. The horse looks strong, but the question mark is that it has only been in two races (wins in the Tampa and the Louisiana Derbies); the last time a winner had such a truncated resume was back in the 1800s.
Trainer Bob Baffert does have two rides, his best chance being in Potente, lingering with 20-1 odds, the winner in the San Felipe in March, and coming in behind So Happy at the Santa Anita. His other is Litmus Test, with slightly longer odds. The Japanese entrant Danon Bourbon strives to be the first Japanese horse to win at the Derby. For longshot temptations, Incredibolt has been competitive, and one of the replacement rides, Great White, has earned more interest as the weekend approached.
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As the race goes off around 6:57 PM Eastern, everything will be dictated by how Renegade breaks free. I like Commandment as a finisher, with Renegade catching up after clearing the field, and Emerging Market hitting the board. But with 19 steeds that have prospects so close this year, it is an anything-can-happen race.Â
Get those mint juleps prepared, and settle in for a long day of a racing undercard.
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