Texas is experiencing a notable influx of voters ahead of Tuesday’s election, including a large number of Hispanic residents who did not participate in the 2024 presidential contest.
More than 763,000 Texans had submitted early ballots despite skipping last year’s presidential election, according to data released by Democratic analyst Tom Bonier.
Bonier’s figures show that over 367,000 of those voters are Hispanic, representing almost half of the increase. Previous data from the analyst indicated that 39 percent of the Hispanic voters in question were younger than 30.
The surge has offered Democrats an unexpected boost. Some party strategists believe the increased participation reflects anger over President Trump’s aggressive immigration policies and dissatisfaction with the economy.
“Just jaw-dropping!!! A Democratic wave and a Latino Tsunami on the way!!!” Democratic strategist Maria Cardona wrote on X.
Hispanic voters moved sharply toward Trump in the 2024 election, particularly in Texas’ Rio Grande Valley, the heavily Latino region along the Mexican border.
But actions by the Trump administration that critics describe as excessive immigration enforcement now appear to be weakening the coalition that helped return him to the White House for a second term.
The Texas turnout figures emerged as Republican Senate hopeful Ken Paxton reportedly dropped a planned stop at the Alamo from his campaign bus tour.
The drill and dance team for Donna High School, walk to the high school football game on October 30, 2026 in Donna, Texas. Latin Grammy winner and Democratic candidate for US House Bobby Pulido appears well positioned to flip the 15th Congressional District seat in a heavily Latino district which President Trump dominated in 2024
Republican US Senate candidate, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton arrives for a campaign event at Cullen Yards on October 31, 2026 in Fort Worth, Texas
Tourists pose for a souvenir photograph in front of Mission San Antonio de Valero, better known as The Alamo. The former Franciscan mission was the site of the Battle of the Alamo in 1836 during Texas’ war for independence from Mexico where Texian defenders were defeated by Mexican troops under General Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna
Paxton had intended to stage his final campaign appearance at the historic site, but his schedule now lists stops Monday in Conroe and Allen, more than 300 miles from San Antonio.
The Alamo does have a designated free-speech area that may be used without a permit, although amplified sound, tents and tables are among the restrictions.
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It was not immediately known whether Paxton’s original bus-tour stop was supposed to take place in that zone, elsewhere on the grounds or on nearby private property.
Paxton, Texas’ attorney general, is locked in a competitive Senate race with Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico.
The Alamo Trust, which manages the historic landmark, told Texas Public Radio that it had no knowledge of plans for Paxton to appear at the site.
The landmark’s “Rules of Reverence” prohibit gatherings centered on political advocacy, public policy or fundraising for unaffiliated groups, regardless of political affiliation.
A Quantus Insights poll conducted from October 26 through October 28 gave Paxton a narrow advantage. He was backed by 49 percent of respondents, compared with 48 percent for Talarico.
A CNN/SSRS survey released during the final week of October showed the opposite result, with Talarico leading by six points. He received support from 49 percent of those polled, while Paxton stood at 43 percent.
Both campaigns regard the contest as effectively tied and within the margin of error, though Democrats saw several encouraging developments on Sunday.
Republican candidate for US Senate Ken Paxton speaks during a midterm campaign rally at Cullen Yards in Fort Worth, Texas on October 31, 2026
Democratic US Senate candidate James Talarico waves to the crowd at a midterm election rally in Houston, Texas
Republicans hope to pull out a win by the skin of their teeth in Texas, but both candidates have been through the wringer during the election cycle.
Paxton won his primary with Trump’s endorsement, ousting incumbent Senator John Cornyn, and alienating a significant number of longtime GOP donors and voters in the process.
The US Senate seat is rated as a ‘toss-up’ by the Cook Political Report, and was formerly rated to be ‘Republican.’
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