For Donald Trump, the election represents his last major test at the ballot box—and a public verdict on the opening half of his second term.

By the close of Tuesday’s voting, more than 100 million Americans will have cast ballots in House and Senate contests nationwide, deciding whether Democrats can seize control of both chambers of Congress.

Some forecasts have warned that Republicans could be overwhelmed by a “blue wave” or even a “blue tsunami.” Other analysts remain less convinced, cautioning that polling can miss the mark—as it has in the past.

Conversations with voters across the country suggest that the cost of living, gasoline and diesel prices, and growing discontent over the Iran war are the dominant concerns, cutting across traditional party divisions.

Much of the public anger is directed at President Trump. His approval rating recently fell to a record-low 36 percent in the average of polls, while more than 60 percent of respondents said they disapproved of his performance.

In an aggressive final push, Trump held 25 rallies in battleground and vulnerable states during October, seeking to energize Republican voters and drive turnout for the GOP.

Yet some political observers argue that his impact could work against Republicans as well, with his presence and rhetoric alienating independents—a phenomenon one expert described as a “red undertow.”

Several Republican candidates have therefore attempted to navigate a delicate political balance, supporting elements of Trump’s agenda while creating distance from him over the Iran war.

If Democrats win both the House and Senate, Trump could spend the final two years of his presidency unable to advance much of his agenda. He would also face a wave of congressional investigations involving him and members of his family.

Held halfway through a president’s four-year term, the midterm elections include all 435 House seats and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats. Voters are also choosing 36 governors.

Republicans currently hold a narrow 218-214 advantage in the House. Two seats are vacant, while one independent member caucuses with the GOP.

Democrats therefore need to flip just three Republican-held seats to take control, and virtually every respected forecast lists them as heavy favorites to do so. The bigger question is how large their majority will be—an outcome that would determine how much authority Hakeem Jeffries, the likely future Speaker, has to contain the more left-wing, democratic socialist faction of his party.

As of Friday, prediction market Kalshi gave Democrats roughly a 93 percent chance of winning the House and a 71 percent probability of taking the Senate.

With a Democratic House victory viewed as highly likely, attention has shifted to the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.

A 50-50 Senate after the November 3 election would still leave Republicans in charge, thanks to Vice President JD Vance’s tie-breaking vote. The GOP would also retain control of the committees Democrats hope to use to investigate Trump.

Democrats must achieve a net gain of four seats to reach the 51-seat majority needed for outright control.

Republicans are defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot, while Democrats are defending the remaining 13.

The most straightforward path for Democrats would be to retain the vulnerable Michigan seat and then capture four contests from a group that includes North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Texas, Kansas and South Carolina.

If Republicans were to take Michigan it would be an enormous setback for Democrats and it has become a focus of the battle in the final days.

The seat is open as Democratic senator Gary Peters did not seek reelection.

Abdul El-Sayed, 42, the Democratic nominee, who would be America’s first Muslim senator, has proved to be a lightning rod for Republicans.

President Trump has attacked him perhaps more than any other candidate, calling him a ‘jihadist,’ while Mike Rogers, 63, the Republican candidate, has tried to tie him to the Muslim Brotherhood.

El-Sayed, a former public health official, has disavowed the group and denied any connection with it. He has also faced a backlash over links to the controversial Twitch streamer Hasan Piker.

The race had been rated a toss-up by the influential Cook Report, which assesses that no state is giving Democrats as much ‘heartburn’ as Michigan.

However, late Monday, the site changed its rating to ‘Lean D’ as part of a prediction that saw the Democrats gaining 3-6 Senate seats.  

Meanwhile, Democrats are highly confident of taking North Carolina. Former governor Roy Cooper holds an eight-point lead in polls over former Republican party chair, and Trump ally, Michael Whatley. Republican-aligned groups have pulled advertising money from the state to direct elsewhere.

Should North Carolina go blue, Democrats would need three more wins from states currently rated ‘toss-ups’ by the Cook Report – Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Texas and Kansas, which hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932. South Carolina, which hasn’t done so since 1998, is also in the mix.

While voters’ concerns about the economy are universal, each state has its own issues and candidate dynamics affecting their race.

In Texas, which has threatened to go blue before, Democrat James Talarico, 37, a seminarian, has made his Christian faith at the center of his campaign.

But some on the religious right have accused him of deceiving voters and attacked him over previous comments about Jesus being ‘non-binary’ and there being ‘six genders.’

Trump has laid into him as ‘Talafreako,’ falsely accusing him of being a vegan, and tried to boost the Republican candidate Ken Paxton, who has been beset by marital and corruption scandals.

In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola is ahead in polls against sitting Republican Dan Sullivan. But the race has been roiled in the final week as the Justice Department escalates a criminal investigation into whether Democrats recruited a separate candidate in an effort to confuse voters.

Sullivan appears on ballots as ‘Dan S. Sullivan’ alongside the labels of ‘Republican’ and “Incumbent,” but a previously unheralded challenger is listed as ‘Daniel J. Sullivan Jr,’ without any party affiliation indicated,

In Maine, Democrats were on the backfoot in July when their nominee Graham Platner dropped out after a sexual assault allegation, which he has denied.

However, his replacement Troy Jackson, a former logger, now has a three-point lead in an average of polls over Republican Susan Collins, who is seeking her sixth term.

In Ohio, Jon Husted was appointed to take over the Senate seat of JD Vance when he became Vice President but is now losing in polls to former Democratic governor Sherrod Brown.

The race has been one of the country’s most expensive this cycle with Brown raising over $68 million by mid-October, to Husted’s $20 million. Hundreds of millions of dollars more has poured in from outside groups.

Husted, a former college football player, received unusual praise from Trump about his physique. The President told a rally: ‘His a** is like a pile of muscle.’

Ohio’s gubernatorial race has also received significant attention as Trump ally Vivek Ramaswamy runs against Democrat Amy Acton, a physician.

Ramaswamy ran the most controversial advert in the entire midterm cycle, featuring Acton’s estranged mother calling her a ‘liar’ and insinuating she has mental health issues.

The mother, Donna Arthur, lost custody of her children after her husband, the children’s stepfather, was indicted for raping Acton.

Amid uproar, Trump backed Ramaswamy, saying the advert was like ‘hitting pay dirt.’

In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson, a former broadcast journalist and staunch Trump ally, distanced herself in the final days of campaigning, declaring she would be a ‘thorn’ in the President’s side if he was not good for Iowa. She is in a tied race with Democratic candidate Josh Turek, a double gold-medal winning Paralympic basketball player.

One of the Senate seats most unexpectedly in play is Kansas, where Trump won in a landslide in three presidential elections.

Like Texas, Democrats are running a candidate whose faith is at the forefront of his campaign. Adam Hamilton is the pastor of the state’s biggest megachurch and has accused sitting Republican Roger Marshall, a doctor, of suing his patients and living out of state.

In the bitter campaign, Marshall has hit Hamilton over a historic church abuse scandal and run an advert accusing him of ‘protecting a pedophile.’

In Kansas, the overwhelming issue is soaring diesel prices, caused by the Iran war, as farmers struggle during harvest time.

Meanwhile, Democrat’s last-minute hopes are rising in deep red South Carolina, which Trump won by 18 points in 2024.

A poll shortly before Election Day put Darline Graham, the sister of the late Republican senator Lindsey Graham, in a tie with Annie Andrews, a Democratic pediatrician and gun control advocate.

Trump made two visits to South Carolina in eight days in a rescue mission, branding the Democrat ‘Tranny Annie’ over her previous comments about transgenderism, and painting her as a ‘radical lunatic’ who would ‘take your guns.’

Going into the final days, Democratic Senate candidates were ahead in an average of polls by 3.6 points in Alaska, three points in Ohio, 2.5 points in Texas, and 2.4 points in Maine.

However, the polling guru Nate Silver concluded that all were just a ‘normal-sized polling error away from flipping’ to Republicans.

Averages of polls measuring the generic ballot, voters’ preference for which party should control the House, show Democrats about eight points ahead.

That margin would mean a gain of 24 seats in the House and a 239-196 majority, according to a model produced by Alan Abramowitz, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Emory University.

It would also mean Democrats gaining of six seats in the Senate, resulting in a 53-47 majority in the upper chamber.

Given its margin of error, the model showed a two-thirds probability of Democrats gaining between 15 and 33 seats in the House, and between three and nine Senate seats.

There was a one-in-six chance of Democrats gaining three or fewer seats in the Senate, leaving Republicans in control.

Professor Abramowitz concluded there is a ‘realistic chance that Democrats could fall short of the 51 seats they need to control the Senate.’

Traditionally, in midterm elections, the party in power receives a slap down from voters.

In 2006, a so-called ‘blue wave’ saw Democrats pick up 31 seats in the House, ushering in the first era of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker.

Four years later, President Barack Obama called his party’s defeat a ‘shellacking’ as they lost over 60 House seats.

In 2018, when Trump’s Republicans were in control, the GOP lost 40 House seats.

However, amid all the suggestions of a Democratic surge, it is worth noting that in Trump’s first term, Republicans somewhat bucked the historical trend by increasing their Senate majority by two.

His poll numbers are lower this time though. A recent poll put his net approval rating for how he has handled the economy at minus 33, and for inflation, it is at a rock-bottom minus 48.

Republicans have spent big to stave off losses.

Elon Musk alone has spent about $366 million to support Republican candidates, according to campaign finance records.  

The SpaceX boss, who voted early in Texas, said: ‘The Democrats intend to cement one-party rule forever and make “democracy” meaningless.’

Overall, a record $3.8 billion had been spent on political advertisements by both parties and outside groups by October 12, with more pouring in for the final stretch.

Top spending came in the US Senate races in Texas, Ohio and Michigan, according to AdImpact, which tracks the numbers. 

A 24-year-old runner and former college field hockey athlete died after collapsing near the end of Sunday’s New York City Marathon, with her death later confirmed at a nearby hospital.

Rachel Apa fell in Manhattan’s Central Park at approximately 1:30 p.m., The New York Times reported. Michaela Nicholas, a social worker at a hospital, immediately went to help and said she could not detect a pulse. Two doctors among the spectators then took turns providing CPR, according to Nicholas.

Medical personnel from the marathon soon arrived with a defibrillator, race organizer New York Road Runners said. An ambulance followed and transported Apa to Mount Sinai Medical Center, where doctors worked for six hours to revive her. Her father said she was pronounced dead at 9:40 p.m.

Steve Apa told The Times that his daughter died from rhabdomyolysis, a rare and potentially fatal condition in which skeletal muscle rapidly breaks down and releases harmful substances into the bloodstream.

“It’s unfathomable,” Steve said. “Perfect health, perfect shape, 24 years old.”

“We are deeply saddened by the death of one of our runners following yesterday’s race,” the Road Runners said in a statement. “Our thoughts and sincere sympathies are with the runner’s family, friends, and the entire running community.”

The Bucknell University graduate had spent months preparing for the race, which she entered to raise funds for the Parkinson’s Foundation Champion.

Her mother, Michelle, watched from the course and filmed Rachel smiling at Mile 14 in Queens. Rachel was also exchanging messages with her father, Steve, who was back home in Lewisberry, Pennsylvania, sending encouragement as she ran, The New York Times reported.

Steve received a short message from his daughter when she reached Mile 18.

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“Ow,” Rachel wrote, followed by “Ow ow” a mile later.

At Mile 23, she sent one final message: “final stretch.” Steve did not hear from her again.

Nicholas told The Times that she continued holding Rachel’s hand after the collapse, wanting the runner to feel that she was not alone.

Michelle was making her way to Central Park, expecting to see her daughter complete the race. But the marathon tracking app showed Rachel had unexpectedly stopped at Mile 24.

She reached the scene as Rachel was being taken away by ambulance and later followed her daughter to the hospital in another ambulance.

NYRR said Rachel was the first runner to die during the New York City Marathon since 2024. The organization also recalled the death of Ryan Shay, a five-time U.S. national champion who suffered a fatal cardiac event in Central Park during the 2007 Olympic marathon trials. The trials were held by NYRR one day before that year’s New York City Marathon.

Apa worked as a product manager for an electrical components company while pursuing an MBA at Charleston Southern University. She had dedicated her marathon fundraising efforts to Parkinson’s disease, the illness that led to her grandfather’s death in 2022.

“My grandfather was my role model growing up,” Rachel wrote online. “He taught me to stay active, push my limits, and embrace challenges, shaping my love for sports and movement. Later in life, he was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease, and I watched as the disease slowly took away the freedom to move that he once loved so much. He passed away in 2022, but the lessons he taught me continue to drive me forward.”

‘I’m proud to run with Parkinson’s Foundation Champions to raise funds and awareness for research, better care, and a cure.’

Australian homeowners are facing another mortgage shock after the Reserve Bank raised interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, pushing borrowing costs to a new high as policymakers continue their battle against persistent inflation. 

The increase lifts the cash rate from 4.60 per cent to 4.85 per cent, its highest point since the 2008 global financial crisis. 

For households with home loans, the latest RBA rate hike means higher monthly repayments and additional strain on budgets that are already under pressure.

Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall said Australia was returning to interest-rate levels not seen since 2008, but borrowers today were carrying significantly larger mortgages, making the impact more severe.

The average new owner-occupier mortgage has climbed from $254,000 in November 2008 to $731,000 today — an increase of 188 per cent. Over the same period, the median property price has risen 129 per cent to $884,855, she said.

For a borrower with a $600,000 mortgage, the latest rate rise will add about $92 to monthly minimum repayments. Across the five increases recorded this year, the total monthly rise would reach $456, according to Ms Tindall. 

She said the financial pressure was building rapidly for borrowers, as well as creating a difficult challenge for the central bank.

After four rate increases this year, many homeowners are already under intense financial stress. A further RBA cash-rate rise could push some borrowers beyond what their budgets can handle, she warned.

Ms Tindall said she was concerned some borrowers may have no more buffer to fall back on. 

‘The question now is how much more room households have in their finances. Some borrowers will be able to absorb another increase within their current budget, but others may be forced to raid their savings.’

Former RBA economist Luke Hartigan said the RBA’s previous approach of making smaller, more cautious moves has not done enough to bring inflation under control.

He said the RBA may have little choice but to keep tightening despite the economic risks. 

‘This could cause a recession and a dramatic increase in the unemployment rate and further falls in housing prices in early 2027,’ he said.

‘While inflation remains outside the target band it risks inflation expectations becoming unanchored which would be very costly to correct.

‘Interest rates are a blunt instrument for managing inflation. Governments, both state and federal, can have a more targeted role in helping to manage inflation by reducing demand pressures in the short-term via increased taxation and reduced spending while also seeking to boost the productive capacity of the economy over the long-term.’

AMP chief economist Shane Oliver expects national house prices to fall about 15 per cent from peak to trough, warning the downturn is now tracking at its fastest pace since 1980.

‘National average prices are down 6.7 per cent and capital city prices down 8.1 per cent from their early-year peaks,’ he said.

‘The rapid decline, combined with more rate hikes than expected, rising unemployment and the structural changes associated with investor tax increases, suggests the top-to-bottom fall is now likely to be around 15 per cent.’

Oliver said Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and potentially Perth were likely to experience the steepest declines, while Melbourne and Hobart should prove more resilient.

He expects prices to bottom out in the September quarter next year before beginning a modest recovery in 2027-28, when the Reserve Bank is expected to start cutting interest rates.

‘While we think the RBA, after another rate hike this week, will have done enough to slow demand in the economy and cool inflation, with 4.85 per cent likely to mark the peak in the cash rate, the risk of further hikes remains high,’ he said.

‘In any case, RBA commentary is likely to remain hawkish for some time and we don’t expect rate cuts until the December quarter next year. Absent a crisis, meaningful rate relief is still a long way off.’

Angus Moore, a senior economist with realestate.com.au, said the rate rise will lengthen the downturn already underway in the housing market.

‘Home prices nationally have declined for seven straight months,’ he said.

‘Further increases in mortgage rates will reduce borrowing capacities again for prospective buyers, adding to the downward pressure on home prices.

‘However, the downturn, while brisk, remains an orderly adjustment driven by rising rates and affordability pressures, rather than a distressed housing correction. 

‘Labour market conditions remain resilient by historical standards, mortgage arrears rates remain low, few borrowers are in negative equity, and many households retain substantial repayment buffers.’

Lindy Klim has offered an update on her much-anticipated wedding to boyfriend Paul Mullert, after the couple’s original plans to marry in January failed to go ahead.

The 47-year-old Balinese princess had previously suggested she was preparing to marry the Perth-born businessman, just months after the pair publicly confirmed their relationship.

But almost ten months after their proposed wedding date, Lindy and Paul are still yet to exchange vows.

Speaking exclusively to the Daily Mail from The Birdcage at the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday, Lindy revealed that wedding plans remain under discussion.

‘Just get me on my Pinterest board,’ she joked. ‘I’m like, “Yes, that’s a nice ring and that,”’ she said, making it clear the couple’s wedding plans were still taking shape.

Lindy said she was delighted with the beautiful ring Paul had given her, although she added with a laugh that ‘there’s always room for improvement.’

The latest comments come nearly a year after Lindy first revealed that she and Paul were considering a January 2026 wedding.

During an interview with the Daily Mail at Derby Day last November, the mother-of-four caught fans by surprise when she said the couple had already spoken about marriage and potentially living together.

‘We don’t live with each other, but when we get married in January, we might,’ she said at the time.

However, when pressed on whether the wedding was definitely going ahead, Lindy appeared to temper her comments, saying the pair were still enjoying the early part of their relationship.

‘We’re still in the early stages. Maybe, you know, we’re happy to enjoy each other being in love,’ she explained.

Although she remained uncertain about the timing, Lindy was clear about the location she would prefer for the ceremony.

The Melbourne-based socialite said she would rather marry in Australia than return to her native Bali for the wedding.

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‘Definitely in Australia. Bali for me, I’ve kind of got some… not PTSD, but like, I had to leave. I don’t know. The shine has been taken away for me,’ she said.

Her remarks followed a challenging chapter in her personal life, including her departure from Bali after the end of her second marriage to British property developer Adam Ellis.

Lindy moved to Melbourne with her four children in early 2025, having spent more than 10 years living on the Indonesian island.

Since returning to Australia, the model has found love with Paul, whom she previously described as a ‘normal, beautiful person’ who is ‘full of love’.

She has also spoken warmly about how seamlessly their families have blended, revealing her four children get along famously with Paul’s daughter.

Lindy debuted their romance at the LIV Golf tournament in Adelaide in February 2025, just months after her shock split from Adam.

At the time, she told Daily Mail they had been quietly seeing each other for several months and were taking things slowly.

‘He’s just a normal, nice guy. We’ve been seeing each other for a few months and just taking it slow,’ she said.

Lindy also revealed their unlikely love story began after Paul’s sister, who lives in Bali, suggested the pair go on a date.

Paul was born and raised in Perth and was a childhood friend of the late Australian actor Heath Ledger.

Before finding love with Paul, Lindy was married to Olympic swimming champion Michael Klim, with whom she shares three children, Stella, Rocco and Frankie.

The former couple separated in 2016 after almost a decade of marriage.

She went on to marry Adam in 2018 and welcomed their daughter Goldie before the pair split in 2024.