Unexpected Surge in Polls Elevates Newsom’s ‘Dark Horse’ Candidate to Frontrunner Status

Xavier Becerra, previously the U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services under President Joe Biden, has unexpectedly gained significant traction in the gubernatorial race, according to sources close to Gavin Newsom’s team.

Becerra’s newfound popularity comes in the wake of the sudden downfall of Eric Swalwell’s campaign. Swalwell had been considered a strong Democratic contender until he withdrew from the race, facing multiple allegations of sexual misconduct, which he has denied, alongside an ongoing Department of Justice probe.

With Swalwell’s exit, Becerra seems to be capitalizing on the opportunity, positioning himself as a key player in the race.

A recent poll conducted from April 14 to April 18, sampling 800 likely primary voters, reveals Becerra’s support has surged to 15%. This marks a significant increase from the mere 4% he held earlier this month.

A new survey conducted between April 14 and April 18 among 800 likely primary voters shows Becerra jumping to 15% support — an 11-point surge from just 4% earlier this month.

The sudden rise places him in a tight cluster of candidates battling for second place, signaling a rapidly shifting political landscape.

The poll shows Trump-backed Republican Steve Hilton still leading the field with 20%, while Becerra is now tied with billionaire Tom Steyer at 15%.

Close behind are Chad Bianco at 14% and Katie Porter at 13%, all within striking distance of a runoff spot, according to a poll by Gudelunas Strategies.

The surge comes amid growing chatter that allies of Gavin Newsom are increasingly viewing Becerra as a viable dark horse candidate to succeed the term-limited governor.

While Newsom himself has not issued a formal endorsement, reports suggest individuals within his political network have begun shifting their attention toward Becerra following Swalwell’s exit.

The governor has publicly maintained a neutral stance. The California Post has reached out to Newsom’s office for comment.

Behind the scenes, political observers note increasing signs of movement. Firms and strategists with ties to Newsom have reportedly begun engaging with Becerra’s campaign, fueling speculation that institutional support could further boost his standing in the coming weeks.

Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters

With California’s primary system advancing the top two candidates regardless of party, even small shifts in voter sentiment could determine who makes it onto the November ballot.

Among Democratic-leaning voters specifically, Becerra appears to have carved out an early advantage. He leads that group with 21%, ahead of both Steyer and Porter, who each register 19%.

Favorability ratings also paint a favorable picture for Becerra. The poll found he holds a +33 net favorability — significantly higher than Porter (+8) and Steyer (+5) — indicating relatively strong perceptions among voters who know him.

Despite the momentum, the race remains wide open.

Hilton maintains a narrow lead, and four candidates — Becerra, Steyer, Bianco, and Porter — remain clustered within the margin of error for second place.

With 10% of voters still undecided and months to go before the primary, the contest is far from settled.

If current trends hold, California voters could be witnessing the emergence of a true late-stage contender and a November ballot between Becerra and Hilton.