Donald Trump’s approval rating—and the political capital that comes with it—is steadily eroding as voters feel the economic consequences of an unpopular war with Iran. The question now is how much damage that decline will do to Republicans in the midterm elections.
Democrats are forecasting a “blue wave,” or even a “blue tsunami,” that could carry them to control of both the House and Senate on November 3. Such a result would leave Trump facing two years of legislative gridlock and aggressive congressional investigations.
Republican strategists, meanwhile, are increasingly alarmed by what once seemed almost impossible: the potential loss of Senate seats in Texas, Kansas and even reliably conservative South Carolina.
Yet the political picture may not be quite as bleak as Democrats hope. Several indicators suggest Republicans are not necessarily finished—and that celebrations on the left could be premature.
Historically, midterm elections tend to serve as a sharp warning to the party occupying the White House. Still, Republicans defied that pattern during Trump’s first term, expanding their Senate majority by two seats rather than suffering the usual backlash.
The outlook is certainly more difficult this time. Most analysts expect Democrats to capture the House, with the main uncertainty being the size of their advantage. The Senate, however, remains far less predictable.
With four weeks remaining before Election Day on November 3, the range of possible outcomes is still wide.
Polls show President Trump underwater, but Republicans are attempting to defy the odds in the midterms
A ‘Blue Tsunami’
Republican candidates across the country are confronting voters who are not merely dissatisfied, but increasingly angry.
An average of polls puts Trump’s approval rating at 37 percent—six points lower than it was at the same point in his first term. His net rating on the economy stands at minus 33, while his rating on inflation has fallen to a dismal minus 48.
With frustration mounting over the Republican administration, all 435 House seats are up for grabs. Republicans currently hold 219 seats, including one independent, while Democrats have 214, with several vacancies.
Democrats are aiming for more than a narrow victory. They want a commanding majority that would give incoming Speaker Hakeem Jeffries greater room to maneuver within a caucus likely to be divided between moderates and democratic socialists.
The 2006 midterms produced a “blue wave,” with Democrats gaining 31 House seats and ushering in Nancy Pelosi’s first period as speaker. Four years later, President Barack Obama described his party’s defeat as a “shellacking” after Democrats lost more than 60 seats. In 2018, Trump’s Republicans surrendered 40 House seats.
Current polling points to another strong Democratic performance. On the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they prefer, Democrats hold a 9.6-point lead—up from 6.7 points one month ago.
Pollster Nate Silver’s analysis indicates that advantage could translate into a 23-seat Democratic gain and a 41-seat majority. His forecasting model gives Democrats a 93 percent chance of taking control of the House.
Independent voters, a group that helped Trump win in 2024, have shifted decisively toward Democrats, backing them by 57 percent to 32 percent in a recent Marist poll. Latino voters have also moved back in the Democrats’ direction.
Those trends have encouraged the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to add six more districts to its “Red to Blue” program, providing additional financial support to candidates there. Trump carried each of the districts by at least 16 points in 2024. Party officials now believe Democrats could gain as many as 28 seats, ending with 240 overall.
“The margin (of victory in the House) matters,” Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told the Daily Mail. “Because if it’s smaller than the number of democratic socialists coming in on the Democratic side, it means there’s an additional bottleneck and a giant headache for the leadership.
“The upper 220s might be enough, but I think 230-plus would give them a much stronger margin.”
A woman at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington DC urges Democrats to vote in the midterms
Meanwhile, in the Senate, Republicans currently have 53 seats and Democrats 47.
On November 3, 35 Senate seats are up for election and 22 of them are currently held by Republicans.
Democrats need a net gain of four because, in a Senate split 50-50, Vice President JD Vance would hold a casting vote.
A myriad of polls over time have been showing Democrats slightly ahead in six Republican-held seats – North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Texas.
Very recently, Democrats have also expanded the map of potential gains to include Kansas – which hasn’t elected a Democrat since 1932 along with South Carolina and Nebraska.
On Monday, Trump launched a rescue mission to Nebraska, flying in to campaign for GOP Senator Pete Ricketts, who is being chased down by independent Dan Osborn, who has the support of many Democrats. It is a race that initially was not expected to be competitive, but ranchers in the state are unhappy with Trump’s plan to allow more imports of foreign beef.
Meanwhile, Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate Republicans’ top campaign spending organization, is pulling back investments from North Carolina, which looks likely to fall to Democrats, and is instead pouring $8.2 million into Kansas to shore up incumbent GOP Senator Roger Marshall.
Marshall is vulnerable to Adam Hamilton, the Democratic leader of the nation’s largest United Methodist Church.
Kansas is a dramatic example of how defensive Republicans have become. Trump won the state by 16 points in 2024.
In South Carolina too, there are suggestions of an upset against Republican Senator Darline Graham, sister of Lindsey Graham who died in July, as she takes on the Democrat, pediatrician Dr Annie Andrews.
It is notable too that, in the primaries, voter enthusiasm was greater among Democrats, pointing to the party seeing better turnout than Republicans in the general election.
Should everything go Democrats way, the party could in theory end up with a Senate majority in double figures.
Iowa Republican US Senate candidate Ashley Hinson is in a must-win race for the GOP with Democrat Josh Turek
A Nail-Biter
There are various indicators to suggest overconfidence among Democrats, particularly in the Senate, and that election night will be longer than many anticipate.
First of all, Democrats have to defend two seats they currently hold, which are not safe.
In Michigan, where Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is not seeking another term, the party’s progressive nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, holds only a narrow lead over Republican Mike Rogers, who has been furiously attacking El-Sayed over links to the controversial left-wing streamer Hasan Piker.
Likewise, in New Hampshire, where the Democrat incumbent is stepping down, the party’s nominee Chris Pappas only narrowly leads John Sununu, a member of the storied New Hampshire Republican Sununu family.
Both those races are rated ‘toss-ups’ by the Cook Report, along with five toss-up seats that are currently Republican.
Assuming Democrats hold Michigan and New Hampshire, and take North Carolina, which is leaning their way, they would still need to win three of Alaska, Ohio, Maine, Iowa and Texas to control the Senate.
The signs are good for Democrats. A New York Times/Siena University poll at the weekend, showed the party’s nominees ahead by seven points in Alaska, six in Texas and three in Ohio, which would take the party to 51 Senate seats.
A crowd cheers at the Republican National Midterm Convention at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas on September 9, 2026
The same polls showed Republicans leading by one in Iowa. Separately, the latest Maine poll, by YouGov, has that race dead even between Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson.
But, should Republicans hold out in Iowa and Maine, and see a late surge in one other state, perhaps Texas, they would stay in control.
Democrats also face the ‘Fetterman problem’ – with Pennsylvania’s Democratic senator John Fetterman often fiercely critical of his own party and siding with Republicans.
‘They have to pick up five seats to get past the Fetterman problem,’ said Professor Sabato. ‘Otherwise, he’s just going to hold them hostage every single vote.’
A big question for Republican candidates is whether to embrace Trump, or pretend he doesn’t exist, which is hard to do.
Last week, Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate in Texas was heard on audio leaked to the New York Times, complaining to donors that Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas damaged him.
‘So, to be honest with you, the numbers, when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good,’ said Paxton.
Texas Senator John Cornyn, who lost his primary to Paxton after Trump endorsed Paxton, admitted it was going to be ‘very rough.’
He said: ‘Even in places like Texas, which are pretty red, we’ve got flawed candidates who I think are going to have a hard time.’
‘You see the poll numbers, everybody is cranky about gas prices,’ said Jeanette Hoffman, a Republican strategist.
Soaring gas prices could trigger a Democratic ‘blue wave’ in the midterms
Republicans hang on to the Senate
It is the least likely scenario but one which is, perhaps, not currently getting enough serious consideration from commentators.
Yes, Democrats are making inroads in unlikely Republican strongholds, but that doesn’t mean they are going to win them.
Most importantly, Republicans are set to massively outspend Democrats in the next four weeks.
Trump’s MAGA Inc super PAC has begun unleashing some of the record-breaking $400 million war chest it had built up. In the last month it and other Republican groups have poured in $163 million.
In Texas over $100 million has recently been spent on ads to boost Paxton, vastly outspending Democrat James Talarico. However, skeptics suggest there is evidence that negative advertising reaches a point of diminishing, and even non-existent, returns.
Democrat Mary Peltola is leading in Alaska, one of the gains the party needs to win control of the Senate
Republicans are pouring money into Texas to boost Trump-endorsed Ken Paxton, who is trailing Democrat James Talarico; but there may be a ‘hidden vote’
Meanwhile, the involvement of Trump may not necessarily be detrimental to all Republican candidates. CNN polls show 71 percent of ‘MAGA Republicans’ say they are ‘certain’ to vote, putting them on the same level of enthusiasm as Democrats. And Trump’s approval rating with self-described ‘MAGA Republicans’ remains at 98 percent.
According to a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the funding advantage gives the GOP ‘air superiority’ down the final stretch and Democrats are ‘scrambling to catch up.’
Republican optimists also point to a potential ‘hidden vote,’ which has been seen in the past, with some MAGA voters refusing to engage with pollsters.
Meanwhile, some GOP Senate candidates in tight races have distanced themselves from Trump on Iran, without being on the receiving end of a tirade from him.
Mike Rogers, in Michigan, released an ad of himself in a grocery store, saying: ‘The war with Iran needs to end and end quickly. Michigan families can’t afford to wait.’
In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson said Iowans ‘shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran.’
However, analysts say voters may not buy it.
‘They weren’t struck by lightning on the way to Damascus, right?’ said Professor Sabato. ‘He is a millstone around the necks of even Republicans in deeply red territory.
‘I put the three options at modest blue wave, the second one would be a large blue wave, and the third one would be a tsunami. And right now, it’s looking like a large blue wave.’
