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Senate Republicans, concerned about the potential vulnerability of their three-seat majority in this year’s midterm elections, are quietly hoping for a pivotal moment—such as the retirement of conservative Justice Samuel Alito—that could energize Republican voters. This sort of “October surprise” could significantly alter their political landscape, drawing more GOP supporters to the polls.
While GOP senators are cautious not to pressurize Alito, a prominent conservative figure on the Supreme Court, into stepping down, they privately speculate that an announcement of his retirement in the fall might sway several key races in their favor.
They anticipate that such a development could provide a boost similar to the contentious confirmation of Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which played a significant role in the 2018 midterm elections.
Some Republican legislators are eager to address the challenge of confirming Alito’s successor this year, while they still hold a relatively secure 53-seat majority. Political analysts, however, predict that this advantage is expected to diminish following the November elections.
GOP senators are coming to terms with the possibility that Democrats might gain control of the Senate by 2027, even though it would require them to secure victories in traditionally Republican strongholds like Ohio, Alaska, Texas, or Iowa.
“If we did have a Supreme Court vacancy, obviously that would be a galvanizing issue for Republicans,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who is up for reelection in a battleground state.
Cornyn, a senior member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, said whether there’s a battle over a Supreme Court vacancy would depend entirely on Alito or any other justice contemplating retirement, but he added that “Alito’s been great” and emphasized, “I don’t give Supreme Court justices advice.”
Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide, said a Supreme Court confirmation fight before the election could be an “October surprise” that alters the political calculus of key Senate races.
“If there was a Supreme Court vacancy and there was a nomination battle going into October, it would have the whole agenda change,” he said.
Darling said a Supreme Court battle would “shift” the focus of Senate races and “may motivate MAGA voters to get reengaged and show up to vote.”
“An October surprise is when some issue comes up that people aren’t expecting that completely changes the debate,” he added. “That clearly is something that would be welcomed by the Trump administration going into the midterms.”
Republicans believe the vicious fight over Kavanaugh’s nomination in October of 2018 helped them increase their Senate majority by two seats in President Donald Trump’s first midterm election, the same year House Republicans lost 42 seats along with control of the lower chamber.
Two embattled Democratic incumbents, Sens. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) and Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.), held slight leads over their Republican opponents heading into the confirmation fight but wound up losing. They both later blamed the high-profile battle over Kavanaugh for impacting their races.
“Up until the Kavanaugh stuff, we really weren’t seeing that enthusiasm on the Republican side,” McCaskill told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” after the election. “There was a double-digit difference in enthusiasm between the blue side and the red side of the equation in our state until Kavanaugh.”
“And then it popped up,” she said.
Senate Republicans also thought they were helped in the 2016 election by then-Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) decision to keep Justice Antonin Scalia’s seat vacant until after that year’s presidential election, making the contest between Trump and Hillary Clinton in part a referendum on the future direction of the Supreme Court.
Scalia died in February of 2016, and his successor, Justice Neil Gorsuch, wasn’t confirmed by the Senate until April of 2017, during Trump’s first term.
Some Republican senators would love to have another Supreme Court showdown before November.
They’re betting that Democratic colleagues angling for their party’s presidential nomination in 2028 could turn the confirmation battle into another political spectacle that drives GOP voters to the polls.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), another member of the Judiciary panel, said he’s “seen the articles” speculating about Alito’s announced retirement before the midterm election and noted that “the rumor started somewhere.”
“Depends on their health,” he said of the chances that Alito, who is 76, or conservative Justice Clarence Thomas, who is 77, may retire later this year.
“I don’t know where this rumor came from; it may well be true,” he said.
Senate GOP aides say they are taking the prospect of a potential vacancy seriously, even though they caution it’s difficult to know whether Alito or Thomas is truly contemplating retirement.
“It seems like it could happen,” said one senior Republican aide. “We’ll get somebody confirmed. The fight will be interesting.”
Republicans are growing increasingly nervous about the future of their Senate majority as polls show Trump’s approval rating has slid into the 30s.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report last week shifted four Senate races in Ohio, North Carolina, Nebraska and Georgia in Democrats’ direction.
Trump fueled speculation about a Supreme Court seat becoming vacant during a recent interview with Fox Business Network’s Maria Bartiromo in which he said he’s ready to tap a new conservative to the bench.
“It could be two, could be three, could be one. I don’t know — I’m prepared to do it,” Trump said in the interview that aired Wednesday.
At the same time, Trump praised Alito as “one of the great justices of all time.”
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters that Senate Republicans would be able to quickly confirm a new justice, just as they did in 2018 and 2020, when liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died less than two months before the presidential election.
GOP senators are leery of publicly speculating about Alito’s future, given his popularity with Trump and the party’s MAGA base.
“I’m not getting into that, I’m not getting into that,” said Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.), another Judiciary Committee member, when asked whether it might make sense for Alito or Thomas to step down to ensure that Trump gets to fill the court’s next vacancy with a Senate GOP majority in power.
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is retiring at the end of the year, advised his colleagues to run on the accomplishments of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which enacted Trump’s tax cuts, instead of hoping for an October surprise to energize GOP voters.
“I think people are trying to do a redo of what Mitch McConnell [did with] the opening [of a seat] with the death of Scalia. I think that that could be a two-edged sword depending on the nominee,” he cautioned.
“We got a path to winning. It’s just about discipline and focusing on the tax provisions of HR. 1,” he said.