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After a short-lived respite, a powerful weather system is anticipated to return later this month over the Plains, specifically targeting the well-known “Tornado Alley.” This region extends from Nebraska down through Kansas, Oklahoma, and parts of North Texas, areas familiar with intense weather activity.
As we approach this shift in weather conditions, severe storms are predicted to intensify and affect nearly 40 million residents across portions of the Southern Plains from Friday through Mother’s Day.
Forecasts indicate that thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail and wind gusts reaching up to 60 mph, are set to develop late Friday afternoon, continuing into the evening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has designated a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms. This alert covers areas of southern Kansas, a significant portion of central and eastern Oklahoma, and parts of North Texas.
Among the cities included in this advisory are Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, Tulsa, and Wichita Falls, Texas. While there is a possibility of weak tornadoes forming in these areas, the probability remains relatively low.
A broader Level 1 threat covers central and southwestern Missouri, the Dallas metro area and much of the Gulf Coast east of Houston.
The SPC also highlighted a Level 1 threat that covers parts of South Texas, just south and east of San Antonio, that could see large hail if storms are able to develop.
Different parts of the Southern Plains will see severe weather through Mother’s Day. Saturday’s threat is somewhat reduced, affecting extreme northeast Texas into southwest Oklahoma.
A Level 2 threat covers Dallas and parts of Central Texas on Mother’s Day itself.
The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts and hail, although isolated tornadoes are possible.
Tornado Alley could reignite to close out May
Historically, May sees the most tornadoes of any month during the year — primarily due to increased activity across Tornado Alley.
While that has not been the case thus far, long-range forecasts indicate that a more traditional severe weather pattern will take shape over the Plains sometime mid-month.Â
So far this season, the most severe storms have been concentrated in the Midwest, as well as parts of the South, including Mississippi, which was hit by several twisters during a Tornado Emergency earlier this week.
Currently, a large dip in the jet stream is suppressing severe storm development over the Plains, but by late May, many long-range forecasts expect that dip to move back over the West.
This allows warm air from the Gulf to rush across the Plains and fuel storms, similar to the pattern that resulted in the deadly April 23-28 tornado outbreak across the Southern Plains.
Long-range forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show above-average rain expected across the Southwest and central Plains.
Like any long-range forecast, however, conditions can change, so the FOX Forecast Center will continue monitoring any changes.